Nifty took support around 7500 and has bounced back to 9000 levels. One sector which clearly shows leadership is pharma. You can read my post here.
As Warren Buffet mentions, there are 2 main rules one should follow in stock market:
Rule 1: Never lose money
Rule 2: Never forget Rule #1
So I think it is also very important to identify the sector which we should stay away from. Why ? Because thats where maximum pain would be and even with the recovery chances of making money in near term are less.That sector is Financials.
Financials had weightage of ~37% in Nifty which shows huge ownership. They were the leaders of bull market and have shown meteoric rise for more than 10 years. And now with a major fall, its likely that there will be a sector rotation i.e. money will move out of this secotr into other sector. There is an old adage that "Leader of previous bull market rarely come back". This is because due to sudden collapse in prices, there are many investors who are left holding these stocks just to get out at break even prices. During each rally, there are such sellers who get out creating pressure on prices. Also there are bottom fishers who play for a bounce and at each bounce they create additional selling pressure due to profit booking.
Currently the maximum pain that will be felt due to lockdown is in financials as there will be large number of defaults that are looming.
Now most of these stocks are exhibiting what we can call a bearish pennant or a bearish flag pattern. You can read about it here.
Lets try to understand the psychology about why this pattern is formed and the resultant move. Read below post from the link I've mentioned.
Thus this is a reason why leader of previous bull market rarely forms a new trend.
Now lets look at charts of some of these stocks where you will clearly understand the weakness and how almost all of them are exhibiting bearish pennant formation signalling significant downside ahead. Key is to look at the slope of the lower trendline. This indicates whether there has been any bounce with Nifty rallying 20% from lows. Lower the slope, weaker the stock is.
Major reason why Nifty today is at 9000 and not 10000 is because of Bank Nifty. It has fallen the hardest and as can be seen in the chart is not even retracing 38% of the entire fall. Thats a major sign of weakness.
Bajaj Finance was the leader of the pack and has fallen from 4800 to 2100 ! During last 1 month's upmove in Nifty, it has hovered around this level and has touched the lower base 6 times. Each time is rebounded except today viz. 21st Apr and it closed around days low ! 1900-2100 is a major support for Bajaj Finance and with its break it will be a major fall ahead for the stock.
Same story here, breaking down from a rising wedge.
IndusInd and RBL Bank have been weakest of the lot. They have corrected significantly in wave 1 itself.
Many of the funds and PMS have been hiding behind financials which helped them achieve strong performance. And with that hiding place crumbling, it will lead to more redemption pressure on these funds thereby leading to more selling of these financials thus creating a spiral. Interesting times ahead.
As Warren Buffet mentions, there are 2 main rules one should follow in stock market:
Rule 1: Never lose money
Rule 2: Never forget Rule #1
So I think it is also very important to identify the sector which we should stay away from. Why ? Because thats where maximum pain would be and even with the recovery chances of making money in near term are less.That sector is Financials.
Financials had weightage of ~37% in Nifty which shows huge ownership. They were the leaders of bull market and have shown meteoric rise for more than 10 years. And now with a major fall, its likely that there will be a sector rotation i.e. money will move out of this secotr into other sector. There is an old adage that "Leader of previous bull market rarely come back". This is because due to sudden collapse in prices, there are many investors who are left holding these stocks just to get out at break even prices. During each rally, there are such sellers who get out creating pressure on prices. Also there are bottom fishers who play for a bounce and at each bounce they create additional selling pressure due to profit booking.
Currently the maximum pain that will be felt due to lockdown is in financials as there will be large number of defaults that are looming.
Now most of these stocks are exhibiting what we can call a bearish pennant or a bearish flag pattern. You can read about it here.
Lets try to understand the psychology about why this pattern is formed and the resultant move. Read below post from the link I've mentioned.
Psychology behind bearish pennant formation |
Thus this is a reason why leader of previous bull market rarely forms a new trend.
Now lets look at charts of some of these stocks where you will clearly understand the weakness and how almost all of them are exhibiting bearish pennant formation signalling significant downside ahead. Key is to look at the slope of the lower trendline. This indicates whether there has been any bounce with Nifty rallying 20% from lows. Lower the slope, weaker the stock is.
Bank Nifty |
Bajaj Finance |
Kotak Bank |
IndusInd Bank |
RBL Bank |
Many of the funds and PMS have been hiding behind financials which helped them achieve strong performance. And with that hiding place crumbling, it will lead to more redemption pressure on these funds thereby leading to more selling of these financials thus creating a spiral. Interesting times ahead.